Weather (or Not) to Go

"When all is said and done, the weather and love are the two elements about which one can never be sure." - Alice Hoffman
With our departure delayed by by ongoing repairs, there are several days to fill but little left to accomplish before we head for Llyrical. One task that continues is an attempt to understand the characteristics of a good weather window for crossing the Florida straits from Miami to Bimini.  I have spent the last few weeks monitoring weather patterns, primarily using a website called PassageWeather,  and I am still unsure.  Now, I know what perfect conditions look like:  It is daytime.  The skies are clear with no rain in the forecast for at least 24 hours.  The wind gently builds to a steady 10-15 knots from the south, southeast maximizing boatspeed.  It would be okay if the wind were from the southwest, but the wind can have NO northerly component to it at all.

When I traveled to Bermuda, we crossed the stream with a 10-15 knot northerly wind. Short, 10-12 foot seas pounded us for the length of the crossing. At the wheel, you felt like you were driving some wild creature. The boat would gather herself, surge forward off the crest of a wave, then fall into the trough, burying her bow in the wave beyond. As water flew past the cockpit, you gripped the wheel and began to climb the next wave. Below, you had to go handhold to handhold or wedge yourself onto a leeward surface. I took a nap in the forward berth by lashing myself within the lee cloths. Every 30 seconds or so I was thrown into the air, where I hung weightless for a moment before crashing back to the bunk. This was not an experience that I want to share with Sandra.

This time of year, perfect conditions are fleeting.  Twice a week, a  new cold front presses into the Bahamas bringing heavy rain and north winds.  After a day or so, the rain clears and high pressure builds.  Gusty north winds steady and begin to clock around to the east, southeast for a day or so.  As winds clock around to the south and then the southwest they continue to build in strength.  Another day, and they are back to the northwest, portending the next cold front.

So what does an optimal weather window look like for mid-March in terms of pressure systems, precipitation, wind direction and speed? If I have to give up one of my criteria, which is least important?   Well, lack of rain is not critical to safety as long as visibility stays fairly good and will have only a minor impact on comfort.  Llyrical can also manage stronger breezes comfortably, especially if they come from astern.  However, that does make approach to a harbor more challenging.  For that matter, Llyrical could handle a gulfstream crossing with northerly winds creating a wind against current 'rage'.  However, that's not a good option for her crew.

I have another two weeks to explore this question theoretically. By then, we hope to be at anchor in Biscayne Bay looking for the 'perfect' calm. - John